Source: Zhuo Chuang Information
The tight supply has pushed the coal prices of the production areas and ports to continue to rise, while the downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the thermal coal market continues to show a trend of differentiation. Near the two sessions and the end of the heating season, market bearish expectations continue to increase.
After the year, the production of coal mines in the producing areas was slow, the supply was tight and demand began to start, and the demand for supply was in short supply. The coal production base and port coal increased simultaneously. The price of 6000 kcal thermal coal in Shaanxi increased from 460/ton on February 11 to 3. At 550/ton on the 11th of the month, the chain rose by 19.57%, up 17.02% year-on-year. The actual transaction price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal in Qinhuangdao Port rose from 585-590/ton on February 11 to 640/ton on March 11. It was 8.94%, a slight decline of 0.85% year-on-year. At present, the overall production and port coal is still operating at a high level, and the port coal price is showing signs of loosening. Downstream, the domestic main power plant concentrated on lowering the market coal purchase price in February, with a drop of 10-20/ton. Overall, power plant purchases are still not active, and some hold the currency and wait for further decline in coal prices.
I. Reasons for the increase in coal prices in the producing areas and ports
1. The coal mines in the producing areas were generally shut down and the supply was greatly reduced. In Inner Mongolia, affected by the mine accident in Inner Mongolia, Inner Mongolia has sent 12 special working groups to go to 12 leagues in the whole region to conduct comprehensive investigation of hidden dangers for enterprises with ramp shafts throughout the district. For enterprises that are about to resume production, Inner Mongolia will undergo strict inspection and acceptance. The most affected of these will be coal producers. Among them, the coal mines in Inner Mongolia Wuhai area are basically in a state of full stop. In addition, from March 3 to March 18, the coal mines strictly limit the production capacity according to the production capacity. If the over-capacity operation will stop the mining, the supply tension will be further aggravated. In Shaanxi, before the Inner Mongolia mine accident, on January 23, a major coal mine accident occurred in Shenmu, Shaanxi Province, causing 21 deaths. Due to the accident of Shenmu Coal Mine, the coal mines in Shaanxi were severely shut down. After the mine disaster in Inner Mongolia occurred, Shaanxi was The requirements for coal mine resumption of production are more stringent, and the security inspection has been further strengthened. Among them, there are very few coal mines in Yulin.
2. After the year, demand will gradually start, and the market will be in short supply. With the end of the holiday effect, downstream demand began to recover gradually in late February, and demand slowed down. The demand for cement plants and chemical plants in the south increased, and the daily consumption of the six major power plants in the coastal areas began to rise. On the 11th of the month, the daily consumption of the six major power plants in the coastal area increased from 436,200 tons on February 11 to 648,900 tons on March 11, an increase of 48.42%. The increase in demand will provide certain support for coal prices.
3. The extended time of Australian coal clearance has aggravated the tight supply of coal. It is understood that the recent coal clearance time in Australia has been generally extended, and the port policies in various regions are not uniform. Overall, terminal procurement of Australian coal clearance time is 30-40 days, other resources need to wait 2-3 months. The extension of the import clearance time of coal has suppressed the amount of imported coal to a certain extent, which has aggravated the tight supply of resources.
Second, the reasons for the lower prices of power plants in some regions and downstream
1. The inventory of downstream power plants remained at a high level, and the enthusiasm for procurement was blocked. Although the daily consumption of the six major power plants in the coastal areas has increased, the overall inventory has remained at a high level and procurement enthusiasm is not high. As of March 11, the coal inventory of the six major power plants in the coastal areas was 16.34 million tons, an increase of 2.4391 million tons or 17.38% over the same period of last year. In other regions, the power coal inventory of power plants in East China is generally at a high level of more than 20 days, while the available days of some power plants in the southwestern region are up to 2 months. The enthusiasm of power plant procurement is not high, which has put pressure on coal prices.
2. The temperature rises and the coal used for heating in the north is expected to decline. Heating coal is the main support for winter coal. According to preliminary calculations, the amount of coal used for heating is more than 100 million tons, so winter has been the traditional demand season for thermal coal. The heating season in most parts of the North ends on March 15th, and only the northeastern part of the region can last until the end of March or April. As the weather warmed up, the coal used for heating in the north dropped significantly. In addition to the end of the heating season, the market bearish expectations were strong, which put pressure on coal prices.
3. Coal mine production is expected to be released or released in large areas after mid-March. On the afternoon of March 4th, the National Development and Reform Commission convened coal mines, railways, ports and other units to meet. The meeting called for large coal enterprises in the Shanxi-Shaan-Mongo area to increase supply to ensure energy supply during the two sessions. In the area of ​​production, some coal mines in the Shenmu area are beginning to resume production. The recovery of large mines will alleviate the current situation of tight coal resources to a certain extent. At the same time, the major meeting will end in mid-March. At that time, the pace of resumption of production of coal mines will continue to accelerate, and supply is expected to increase substantially. The market is expected to have a bearish view on coal prices.
Third, the impact on related industries
1. The price of coal has increased, which has increased the cost pressure of enterprises. Overall, the downstream power companies were driven by the long supply of coal and high inventory, and the procurement cost did not increase significantly. The cost of purchasing coal for coal companies such as cement plants and chemical plants has increased significantly. In some areas, the increase of 10-30/ton has increased the cost pressure of enterprises. At the same time, the coking coal market also showed a tight supply phenomenon. After the year, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia and other places showed significant increase in coking coal. Most coking coals generally rose by 30-50/ton and the high C was 70/ton.
2. The high inventory of power plants has been alleviated. The supply of production is tight, and the power plant itself intends to destock. Recently, the power coal inventory of the power plant has shown a downward trend. The six major power plants in the coastal area totaled 16.34 million tons on March 11, which was down by nearly 500,000 tons, down 2.84%. Power plant inventory also has varying degrees of decline.
Fourth, the forecast of future price trends
Before the end of the two sessions, due to insufficient supply of production, the coal market will remain tight in supply and demand. However, after mid-March, the progress of coal mine production may accelerate, and with the end of northern heating, the demand side will gradually fall back. The situation may have eased. In terms of price, supply recovery will take some time, so it is expected that coal prices will remain at a high level in March, and coal prices will have limited downside. After April, if the supply returns smoothly, it is expected that the coal price will decline.
Editor in charge: Ge Hongyan
Proofreading: Ge Hongyan
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