With the recent local investment boom, the voice of China's local debt risk has become more and more intense. In response, the central government has recently stated that it is necessary to "improve local government debt risk control measures." Experts pointed out that the current total size of China's local debt is still in the safe zone, but the solvency of different regions is different, and it is necessary to prevent debt risks in certain local areas and specific projects.
Implicit debt is difficult to count
What is the local debt in China? There are 3 numbers on the table. According to the audit results of the National Audit Office in 2011, as of the end of 2010, the relevant local government's relevant debt reached 10.7 trillion yuan; Dong Dasheng, deputy auditor of the National Audit Office, said this year that the current total government debt at all levels is 15 trillion-18 One trillion yuan; the former Minister of Finance, Xiang Huaicheng, recently revealed that local government liabilities are estimated to exceed 20 trillion yuan.
Different figures illustrate the difficulty of local debt statistics. It is understood that there are no specific institutions and standards in China to calculate local debt. At the same time, local financing platforms are becoming more diversified and concealed. The source and quantity of many funds are unknown, and the scale of liabilities is difficult to count. It is precisely because this part of the hidden debt hidden in the black box is an unknown number, which further aggravates people's concerns about local debt risk.
In particular, recently the local government has been re-elected, and the new leaders continue to raise new debts to build GDP to boost GDP growth. This practice further increases the debt burden.
Different solvency
Experts pointed out that compared with the debt ratios of the United States and Japan, China's current debt level is below the critical point of international practice and within the margin of per capita GDP security. Xiang Huaicheng said that the debt of the Chinese government is not very dangerous at present. This is because, first, the debt ratio itself is not particularly high. Second, the Chinese government's debt is basically internal debt. Third, government debt has not seen particularly bad and particularly inefficient cases.
The right debt is not afraid, the key is to repay the ability. Although there is no near-worry solvency in various places, there are long-term concerns. Experts analyze that from the current point of view, local debt continues to expand, and future fiscal revenue growth must catch up with the growth rate of debt, in order to effectively resolve risks. However, in recent years, the central and local fiscal revenues have been decreasing, and how to develop in the future is full of suspense.
There is another worry. It is understood that the mortgage assets of most local financing platforms are land, which means that whether the local government can repay debts as scheduled in the future is related to the quality of the local real estate market. Insiders pointed out that once the real estate bubble bursts, the debt risk will be concentrated.
According to the statistics of the National Audit Office, more than 35% of local debts will expire in the next three years, and it will not be possible to repay debts on time. Guo Tianyong (microblogging), a professor at the School of Finance at the Central University of Finance and Economics, pointed out that the debt repayment ability of various local governments is not the same. Jia Kang (microblogging), director of the Institute of Fiscal Science of the Ministry of Finance, said that at present, the total amount of debt is still in the safe area, but it is necessary to guard against the debt risks of certain local areas and specific projects.
Strengthening the consciousness of local debt repayment
How to solve the local debt problem? Experts said that on the one hand, measures should be taken to digest old debts to contain risks; on the other hand, new systems should be established to control the scale of new debts. Finance Minister Lou Jiwei said that the Ministry of Finance is deploying a survey on the size of government debt, dividing local debt into explicit, implicit, direct and contingent debts, classifying them, and stopping the trend of local government debt expansion. Study and develop some systems to open a proper way for people to block those tricks.
For digesting old debts, Sun Lijian, deputy dean of the School of Economics of Fudan University, believes that it is necessary to rationalize the market mechanism, invigorate the local economy, and win the space for future debt repayment through the improvement of economic benefits. The Yunnan provincial government has clearly stated its position and timely replenished the debt repayment reserve to effectively respond to the debt repayment pressure. Gradually establish creditor debtor reconciliation mechanism, improve and improve local debt statistical reporting system, accelerate the establishment and improvement of local government debt scale management and risk early warning mechanism, and effectively prevent and reduce government debt risk.
Zhang Monan (microblogging), deputy researcher of the World Economic Research Office of the Economic Forecasting Department of the National Information Center, suggested to this reporter that the government should set up a government overdue debt settlement risk fund to prepare for future debt risks.
To control the scale of new debt, experts believe that governments at all levels must effectively change the mode of economic growth and effectively control the scale of local government debt by restraining overheating of investment. At the same time, it is necessary to strictly examine the qualifications of the issuers, standardize the issuance of debts, and strengthen the debt service obligations.
There is also a view that the new debt can no longer use the old practice of borrowing money from banks before, and can form a market restraint mechanism for the financing of local governments through the bond market. Wei Jining, deputy director of the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that the local government itself directly faces the market as a bond issuer, so that it has a dominant position in the issuance, management, and debt repayment, and has more in debt management. More autonomy, but also to strengthen the local government's awareness of debt repayment.
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